Northern Ireland's workforce is on track to surpass one million jobs by 2032, according to the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre's July 2026 Economic Outlook, which also identifies staff turnover costs, productivity gaps, and demographic change as the key workforce planning challenges the region must address to sustain that growth.

News Letter reported that Northern Ireland recorded the fastest annual growth in workforce jobs of any UK region between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, a period in which employment contracted across most other UK regions. Public sector expansion and sustained private sector growth, particularly in wholesale and retail, were identified as the primary drivers.

Construction entered 2026 with strong momentum, with the report forecasting continued growth from major infrastructure investment and the rollout of City and Growth Deal projects. Employment growth is expected to continue but at a gradually moderating pace as Northern Ireland's labour market aligns more closely with wider UK trends.

Todd Gowdy, an assistant economist at the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, said sustaining growth will require strategic workforce intervention. He said: "Northern Ireland's labour market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Strong employment growth has been a key driver of economic performance over the past year, and our forecasts indicate that this momentum will continue, with workforce jobs expected to exceed one million by 2032. However, sustaining that growth will require strategic policymaking. Demographic change, skills shortages and productivity challenges will all need to be addressed if we are to maximise economic opportunities and improve living standards over the long term."

The report also presented new research estimating that turnover among child and family care social workers in Northern Ireland cost approximately £7.13 million (approximately €8.44 million) in 2024/25, through recruitment, training, learning and development, and productivity losses associated with vacancies. A 20 per cent reduction in turnover could save £1.43 million (approximately €1.69 million), enough to fund approximately 42 additional Band 5/6 social workers.

Gillian Martin, a senior economist at Ulster University Economic Policy Centre, said the social worker data makes the fiscal case for retention investment explicit.